The expected late-month spurt of rain in the South will be powered by a fresh low-pressure area in South-East Bay of Bengal and moving west.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has suggested the likelihood and mounted a watch for the ‘low’ around Wednesday.

NO CONSENSUS

Global models, except one of the US Navy’s, do not indicate strengthening of the system beyond a point.

This is despite the fact the long distance covered from Southeast Bay of Bengal to the Tamil Nadu coast allows ample time and space for intensification.

A leading Asian storm tracker has put out a storm watch but indicated that it would lose strength during landfall over Chennai or neighbourhood by December 2.

Meanwhile, the IMD has predicted rain or thundershowers at a few places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep and over south peninsular India.

Persisting showers over south peninsula is attributed to cyclonic circulation over south Tamil Nadu.

RAIN OUTLOOK

It is seen moving west-north-west and bring Lakshadweep also under cover over the next couple of days.

Satellite imagery showed rain-bearing clouds over parts of south Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Southeast Arabian Sea as well as Southeast Bay of Bengal.

Rain or thundershowers has been forecast at many places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands over the next couple of days.

One or two places over South Karnataka and South Andhra Pradesh too may gain from the wet session. Last 24 hours ending Sunday morning saw rains lash many places over Kerala; a few places over Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka and south-coastal Andhra Pradesh.

WINDY NORTH

Towards the north, the persisting western disturbance over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir has weakened in intensity.

It has let loose a barrage of dry but cool northwesterly to warmer westerly winds over Indo-Gangetic plains.

Night temprature

Minimum (night) temperatures hover between 8 to 10 deg Celsius over many parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and parts of Uttar Pradesh, north Rajasthan and Bihar.

No significant change is seen in minimum temperatures over northwest and adjoining Central and East India during next three days.

vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in

(This article was published on November 25, 2012)
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