The Hindu Business Line : Another depression, but Bay isn't finished yet

The upper air cyclonic circulation over North Bay of Bengal descended to become a `low' in quick time, spinning furiously later to undergo two rounds of intensification to end up as a depression on Wednesday.

The system is moving west-northwest and is tipped to cross into land `anytime during the night' to set off another wet session over north peninsular east coast, Central India, Gujarat and Konkan and Goa.

Deficit stays

Paradoxically enough, the unrelenting rains over the past 4-5 days have not been enough to wipe out the 2 per cent overall rain deficit (calculated as on August 9), said Mr J.V. Singh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

The shortfall was maintained as such till August 13 (Sunday) as per the latest calculations available. Mr Singh attributed this to the progressively high rainfall normals the country has to contend with as August wore on.

Buzzing again

The NCMRWF on Wednesday officially acknowledged that the Bay could get back to what it is doing best with another upper air cyclonic circulation being forecast to form around Monday next (August 21).

A watch has been mounted to confirm the buzz, its depth and possible signs of intensification into the next `low.'

Slow paced

The only redeeming feature about the prevailing depression is the pace with which the system has carried itself this far, which, if maintained, could mean correspondingly shortened hours of misery for the flood-ravaged States in the region.

But 24 hours of deceptive calm is all what Gujarat could hope to relish between successive waves of marauding rainfall as a departing `low' clears its way for the incoming depression. The situation could not be much different in the upstream States of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Andhra Pradesh.

The system would bring widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls accompanied by high winds over Orissa during the next two days. Widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places are also likely over Gangetic West Bengal, north Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

Wet in west

Meanwhile, Tuesday's well marked `low' over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining east Rajasthan has weakened into a `low' over southwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining southeast Rajasthan. Under its influence, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls are likely at a few places over Saurashtra, Kutch and north Gujarat during the next two days.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over south Gujarat region, south Rajasthan, southwest Madhya Pradesh, Konkan, Goa (including Mumbai) and madhya Maharashtra during the same period.

Monsoon is likely to remain active over Central and Peninsular India during the next 4-5 days. Model predictions suggest that a western disturbance is likely to affect Jammu and Kashmir and the adjoining region during the weekend.

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