The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon withdrawal disrupted

The Bay of Bengal is getting back to doing what it knows best, with consensus opinion of at least three major weather models suggesting the warm waters may be readying yet again to host a fresh cyclonic circulation.

Expected to form by September 4 (Monday), the circulation is progressively expected to descend to lower levels to set up the next `low', said Mr J. V. Singh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

This will happen in tandem with the prevailing monsoon depression over land weakening and becoming insignificant.

HOME SPUN

This could be the first instance in a long time of the Bay throwing up an `in situ' (or home spun) system.

Most of the preceding ones have been migrating remnants of large circulations marching through the Western Pacific/South China Sea.

It is now more or clear that the monsoon withdrawal session schedule from September 1 will not be adhered to, Mr Singh said.

Monsoon starts withdrawing from extreme parts of West Rajasthan and runs through the rest of its course till September 30 when the season comes to an end.

SYSTEM TO WEAKEN

Meanwhile, the depression over Chhattisgarh moved in a West-Northwest direction and lay centred about 50 km South-Southeast of Sagar in Madhya Pradesh on Thursday.

The system is likely to move further in a Northwesterly direction and weaken.

Under its influence, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls are likely at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cm or more) over Southwest Madhya Pradesh during the next 24 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also likely over the rest of Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, East Rajasthan, North Madhya Maharashtra and Vidarbha during same period.

INTERACTION

Model predictions suggest that the system will set up an interaction during the next two days with a western disturbance that has crossed in to Northwest India. Under its influence, the enhanced rainfall belt is likely to shift to parts of Northwest India. East Rajasthan, Punjab-Haryana-Delhi and Himachal Pradesh will benefit from the wet session.

Coastal Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal are expected to start getting isolated heavy rains from Monday next as the impending `low' in the Bay brews to full strength.

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