The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon may revive bringing rains to central India

Thiruvananthapuram, July 29 Skies over Northwest Bay of Bengal are shaping up to host a cyclonic circulation by the weekend, which is expected to descend to lower levels and lead to the revival of southwest monsoon.

The latest available medium-range outlook by the Department of Science and Technology clearly favours formation of the system around August 4 (Saturday). The axis of monsoon trough is likely to shift southwards from Thursday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update on Sunday. pThe axis is currently aligned along the Himalayan foothills indicating the ‘break monsoon’ phase.

This has been in effect from mid-July leading to the drying up of central India and the peninsular interior, which, in turn, had followed an unusually active phase lasting a month.

Lean patch

The lean patch in central India persisted even as varying spells of rain slashed around to periodically pound the northwest, northeast, southeast and southwest of the country.

Flooding has been reported from Bihar, Assam and some of the North-eastern States.

Westerly flows over the Arabian Sea would be picking up in strength from Thursday (August 2) prior to complementing the build-up of the circulation in the Bay.

Usagi storm

The only impediment to this would be the presence of a tropical storm, Usagi, in the west Pacific. Usagi is expected to spin up as the next typhoon in the Pacific basin.

The typhoon is projected to cross the Japanese coast by Saturday and weaken in the process.

This would clear the way for a building high-pressure area with sinking, drying air to extend influence further west into the Pacific, and prevent the formation of another destructive weather system.

This may serve the cause of Indian monsoon well, though there is no ruling out that it would still have to contend with the odd system brewing in the South China Sea to its immediate eastern neighbourhood.

But the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) affirms that the Indian monsoon, being the dominant one, would be able to hold on its own.

NEXT MONSOON ‘LOW’

The cyclonic circulation in the Bay is shown as descending down to lower levels and progressively setting up the next monsoon ‘low’. It could go on to intensify as a monsoon depression after Usagi spends itself out.

The Andhra Pradesh-Orissa coast could be the most likely area for the depression to make a landfall.

A likely west-northwest course could take the system into central India by when the westerly flows would have peaked, bringing the whole of interior peninsula under its influence.

High winds and flooding could return to these parts.

Numerical weather models on Sunday suggested that widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over the Gangetic plains and the North-eastern States during next four days as well.

Rains in UP, West Coast

Rain and thundershowers are indicated for Uttar Pradesh, the west coast and parts of central India.

A warning valid for the next two days spoke about the possibility of isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over the North-eastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, the Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, south Coastal Andhra Pradesh, north coastal Tamil Nadu, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

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