The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon onset phase to be replicated again

Thiruvananthapuram, June 15 The reviving monsoon would have to go through another ‘elaborate onset phase’ before being able to canter into Mumbai, north peninsular and central India.

Mumbai would need to wait for at least another week to get the first monsoon showers, according to Dr Akhilesh Gupta, experienced operational forecaster and an Advisor with the Department of Science and Technology.

The normal date of onset for Mumbai is June 10.

DOING AN ENCORE

The ‘onset phase’ is being replicated since the revival is largely being organised from much lower latitudes in the Arabian Sea - unlike the central region from where the monsoon would have raced to Mumbai.

This would mean that the rains would be mostly active over those areas where it has already made the onset. No northward progress from its June-7 position is indicated until Monday next (June 22).

As of now, the build-up is seen better structured in the Bay of Bengal. Even here, the anticipated churn is taking place more to the south and closer to the east coast – unlike the north or Head Bay from where the rains could head into central India sooner.

NO ‘AILA’ PLAY

According to Dr Gupta, the one redeeming feature is that there is no possibility yet of a brewing ‘low’ in the Bay getting dissipated or going the ‘Aila’ way to play spoilsport.

Only, the northward progress of monsoon would be painfully slow. And, the Arabian Sea would take its own time to get sufficiently ‘excited’ to play catch-up.

Catch-up it will, given that monsoon would once again be piggy-backing on an itinerant Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave transiting the east African coast into equatorial Indian Ocean beyond.

The periodic MJO wave magnifies weather systems falling under its footprint as it tracks to the east, and is known to trigger monsoon onsets, cyclones and even the feared ‘break-monsoon’ (intra-seasonal shut-out).

MJO SUPPORT

In fact, the early onset (May 24) this year was underwritten by a preceding MJO wave.

The incoming wave would not be as strong or enduring, but would still manage to launch the system on ‘auto-pilot’ by presiding over the instigation of the crucial ‘shear zone’ of turbulence.

The shear zone would sustain the monsoon even after the MJO leaves it behind.

All said, the emerging scenario is worrisome on two counts – one, an abnormally rain-deficient June and its impact on Kharif sowing in north peninsular and central India.

Two, the June 10 to 12 timeline for sowing is already past and no rains are there for the asking before June 22, Dr Gupta said.

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