The Hindu Business Line : Kazhagams gear up for the clash

In the DMK-led DPA (Democratic Progressive Alliance) camp in Tamil Nadu, which is to have its Assembly elections in May, it is a problem of plenty — of parties wanting to join the alliance, while the number of seats available is limited to 234.

As the alliance leader, the DMK is saddled with the responsibility of apportioning seats to allies such as the Congress (I), the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), the Left parties and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK). With the PMK keen on bringing in the Dalit Panthers of India (DPI), and the All-India Forward Bloc too interested in joining the maha alliance, there is consternation in the DMK camp on how many parties it can accommodate.

After a fortnight of suspense on `Will he-Won't he', the MDMK chief, Mr Vaiko, finally broke his silence to announce that he would stay with the DPA for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections. This comes after an intriguing silence from him even while the foot soldiers from both his party and the DMK traded accusations on how each outfit was out to kill the other!

Mutual suspicion

Both sides had reasons for suspicion. In the last couple of weeks, the AIADMK leadership, which had incarcerated Mr Vaiko for nearly two years under POTA, making all kinds of accusations about his alleged nexus with the LTTE, suddenly found him to be a `sincere' and `honest' man and urged him to leave the DPA to ally with the AIADMK. There were hardly any surprises in the AIADMK trying to entice Mr Vaiko; after all, it is a legitimate aspiration for any party to go in for the kill in at election time. And as breaking alliances is often the key, the AIADMK leadership understandably decided to go in for what it perceived to be the weakest link in the DPA chain — the MDMK.

In the 2001 election, the AIADMK had managed to get the PMK on its side, and with the DMK chief, Dr M. Karunanidhi, failing to give the MDMK what it took to retain it in the DMK-led alliance, the MDMK contested on its own.

Capitalising from the Vanniyar vote, and having formidable allies such as the Congress(I), the TMC and the Left parties, the AIADMK romped home comfortably. But unhappy with the treatment the PMK boss, Dr S. Ramadoss, received from the AIADMK leadership, not only in the run-up to the 2001 elections but also later, the option of getting the PMK out of the DPA was hardly available. And with the PMK having some key portfolios, including Health, in the Union Ministry, it is hardly going to look at rocking the boat.

The inclusion of the Congress(I), the TMC and the Left Parties had made the AIADMK-led front a formidable group in the 2001 elections, snapping up 132 seats (out of the 140 it contested). The Congress and the TMC got 30 (of the 46 they contested), the PMK 20 (out of 27) and the CPI(M) and the CPI got six and five seats each.

Happy in DPA

But this time around, the bulk of Ms Jayalalitha's erstwhile allies are in the DPA, and the Congress(I) — the TMC is now defunct — is not even likely to look in the direction of the AIADMK, with its chief having launched scathing personal attacks on Ms Sonia Gandhi during the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, when the AIADMK was an ally of the BJP. The Left parties too are happily ensconced in the DPA fold.

So if the DPA were to be broken, Mr Vaiko would be the obvious choice as there are younger leaders within the DMK who are apprehensive of his influence on the cadres, if not immediately, at least in the future. But as the astute politician, Mr Karunanidhi described it, the AIADMK's statements that the door was open for Vaiko is really nothing more than "a mouse trap"! Also, for Mr Vaiko, it is a Hobson' choice; going it alone will take him nowhere as he discovered in 2001, and joining the AIADMK will deal a severe blow to his image, as he would be joining the very party that had tormented him hardly a couple of years ago.

But, then, if his allies are not to be caught in this "mouse trap", the DMK chief too will have to be more accommodating, and at the expense of the seats his own party can retain.

While the wish-lists of his allies aim for the moon, it looks as though Mr Vaiko will have to be content with 15-18 seats, the PMK with around 25, the Left parties 8-9, and the Congress(I) getting the lion's share of 40-odd seats.

Coming to the AIADMK, taking into account the fairly decent governance it has provided this time, coupled with the dexterity with which Ms Jayalalithaa set about the task of reversing unpopular decisions, be it on disciplinary proceedings against government employees and sops for them, power tariff, and so on, there is expectation in some quarters that the people of Tamil Nadu will give it mandate for another term.

Whether it is the manner in which the State administration handled the severe water crisis in the earlier years, and then the floods last year; the speed at which the rain-battered roads were repaired, even though in an election year; or the meeting of new investors' expectations on a certain level of infrastructure, the AIADMK Government has measured up.

Poll arithmetic

But weighing heavily against this is the poll arithmetic, which will be difficult, if not impossible, to beat. After all, each of the Dravidian parties has its own vote-bank — around 30 per cent — and the DMK's allies have theirs too.

This is what had ensured the DPA such a victory in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls when it swept all the 39 Lok Sabha seats as well as the lone Pondicherry seat.But such is the uncertainty of politics that the same combine was not able to beat the AIADMK in the by-elections to the two Assembly seats of Kancheepuram and Gummindipoondi, held less than a year after the Lok Sabha polls.

All in all, it promises to be an interesting election, more so if the AIADMK indeed manages to break the DPA; till the final seat-sharing is announced by the DPA, it will keep the "mouse trap" open for whoever wants to test the waters.

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in