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Fresh `low' brings eastern region also under footprint

Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , Aug 20

The Bay of Bengal threw up another `low' on Sunday ahead of projections even as the westerly flows over the Arabian Sea showed signs of having weakened slightly. Consensus forecasts had favoured the `low' to take shape by Tuesday but the system eventually beat them to it, as has happened quite often during the ongoing season.

MOST EASTWARD

The fresh system has formed off the West Bengal-Bangladesh coast, but happens to be the most eastward-oriented of a retinue of `lows' lining up in the Bay. The onward course would be predominantly northwest (not west-northwest) this time amid indications that the system could become more `marked' soon.

It will bring fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Gangetic West Bengal and Orissa during the next 24 hours. The rains will later extend to Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh, says the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

BADLY NEEDED RAIN

According to Dr Ranjeet Singh of the NCMRWF, rain or thundershowers are also likely at many places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura and at a few places in the rest of northeast India, which have ran up rain deficits given the traditionally high rainfall normals.

The weakening trend of the westerly flows would cause the monsoon trough to move out of its unusually southerly perch and inch away towards the Himalayan foothills. This could bring the rain belt to the eastern flanks of the country as well as to the northeast, north coastal Andhra Pradesh and even Tamil Nadu.

According to Dr Singh, the presence of a system in the Bay would still mean that the westerly wind regime is largely in tact. "It's just that the strength of the flows may have been compromised to some extent," he clarified.

The hyper active western Pacific/South China Sea has become a lot quieter, with no major system being present for now. A string of tropical storms and typhoons from this region was largely responsible for busying up the contiguous Bay of Bengal to their west.

Meanwhile, Friday's depression over the land had weakened to a well marked `low' on Saturday and further to a `low' over west Rajasthan. The system is likely to move in a north-west direction.

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