The Hindu Business Line : Growers report drop in arabica output

Developing situation
Some growers are reporting only half the crop they got last year.
Trade feels some growers could be holding back produce as reason for lower arrivals.

Chennai , Jan. 11

Growers have begun to report sharp drop in arabica production but the Coffee Board says it is confident about its revised estimate made post-monsoon.

"The arabica production and arrival this year has been very poor. We should be lucky even if arabica production tops 70,000 tonnes this year," said plantation industry sources in Karnataka.

According to them, some of the large growers, including a corporate firm, are worried over the decline in arabica. "For instance, some of the growers are reporting only half the crop they got last year," they said.

Curers say they have been unable to get enough material this year. If they had got 1,000 tonnes during the same period last year, arrivals at their units this year have been lower than 400 tonnes.

Robusta Crop

When contacted, Mr Anil K. Bhandari, former president of the United Planters' Association of Southern India, said: "It is quite possible that the arabica production has been hit. In our estate itself we are experiencing it but coffee production may match expectations as robusta crop could be better."

"Definitely, arabica crop is lower but how much we have to wait and see," he added.

As per the Coffee Board's revised estimates, production this season (November 2006-October 2007) is likely to be 2.88 lakh tonnes. The projection was made after the south-west monsoon got over and the board estimated arabica production at 99,700 tonnes and that of robusta at 1.88 lakh tonnes. In its estimate made after blossoming of coffee flower, it projected a crop of 3.03 lakh tonnes (1.037 lakh tonnes arbica, 1.966 lakh tonnes robusta).

Post-blossom Estimate

Last season, the output was 2.74 lakh tonnes (94,000 arabica, 1.8 lakh tonnes robusta). It was lower than initial estimate of 2.82 lakh tonnes.

The Coffee Board Chairman, Mr G.V. Krishna Rau, when contacted, said: "We don't think we have anything to comment upon now on the crop. We have come out with the post-monsoon estimate after the post-blossom and we are confident about our estimate.

"Once the harvest gets over and the next crop begins, we will review the situation along with the post-blossom estimate. We find every year there are talks of the production being lower than our estimate. But when you look at domestic consumption and export, you will it matching our projections.

"It is possible that there is a fall in production in some areas but there could be a rise in some other area. We are getting feedback from the growers and we feel our estimates are more or less reasonable."

According to plantation sources, there are two reasons for the reported drop in arabica production. "One, the drop is due to the white stem borer menace. Two, we think the rains had come early and have affected setting of coffee," the sources said.

Explaining the process, the sources said: "For example, for every 300 flowers that blossom in a mango tree, you can expect only 100 mangoes. Similarly, for every 100 flowers, setting of coffee will be only in 60. But this time, due to early rains, most of the flowers had aborted."

Freight Movement

The trade also pointed out at freight movement in the growing areas. The movement of lorries has declined to less than 10 from the normal 15-20 a day. "One, the crop is poor. Or, the farmers are holding. Maybe, they are selling smaller lots and holding back bigger ones," they said. Mr Bhandari said growers were holding back their produce as prices were showing a tendency to rise in the global market. "I myself am holding back my produce," he said.

Currently, farm gate prices for arabica parchment are quoted at Rs 4,600-4,800 for a 50-kg bag, while for robusta cherry they are ruling at Rs 1,600-1,800. The prices are higher than what it was during January last year, when arabica parchment ruled at Rs 4,600 and robusta cherry at Rs 1,600.

In the global market, robusta for March delivery was quoted at $1,532 a tonne in Europe and in New York, arabica ruled at $1.20 a pound. Coffee prices are ruling firm on tight stocks and lower Brazil crop and stocks.