The Hindu Business Line : Winds gathering force over peninsular India

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has assessed that the easterly to northerly winds over Bay of Bengal and peninsular India are gathering strength in the run-up to the onset of northeast monsoon later during the week.

According to the Global Forecasting System (GFS) model of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre of the US Navy, the northeasterlies would increasingly turn to become easterlies over the peninsula from Wednesday.

ONSET DATES

Between 1901 and 2000, the onset of easterly winds took place between September 23 and November 1. The normal date for this change in wind direction was October 15.

During the same period of 100 years, the onset happened between October 4 and November 11, with the median normal being October 20.

Wind speeds may peak to 20-25 knots (37 km/hr to 46 km/hr) during the active phase from Wednesday, considered the optimal range for precipitating the onset.

This is forecast to trigger peak weather activity in high winds and rain along the warm seas, abutting the northeast Sri Lankan and southeast Tamil Nadu coast on November 1 and 2, the GFS model said in its updated forecast on Monday.

Active weather conditions are forecast to continue even going forward, with the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction indicating that an incoming parcel of moisture from south to southeast Bay of Bengal may drop its contents over south-central and southeast coastal Tamil Nadu during November 3 to 11.

The Roundy-Albany model that scans the global seas for signs of storm development continues to train its eyes over the Bay during the second week of November.

A six-day outlook from Monday by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University said that accumulated precipitation will amount to 20 per cent of the monthly average (for 1979-2004) over southeast Tamil Nadu and northeast Sri Lanka.

NEW TYPHOON

Meanwhile, the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and the London-based Tropical Storm Risk Group made an identical forecast of a new depression in the west Pacific (numbered tropical storm Twenty Three) to become the next typhoon.

This typhoon-in-making is forecast to ramp up into a Category-3 storm in terms of intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale (185 to 231 km/hr) before making a landfall over The Philippines on October 31.

Subsequent to this, the weakened storm will head into the South China Sea and intensify again by rallying round the northeasterly flows and make an eventual second landfall over Thailand and adjoining Indo-China.

A remnant circulation should normally find its way across into the adjoining Bay of Bengal, but the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts does not find evidence of any significant churn up to November 5.

Significantly, this phase coincides with the arrival of a western disturbance that may dig deep into peninsular India and `feel out' the waters of the north Bay of Bengal.

Associated flows may not give any quarter for a prospective weather system in the Bay to `earn its spurs'.

RAIN OUTLOOK

Meanwhile, the IMD said in its outlook valid until October 31 that scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely over south peninsular India. Satellite imagery showed convective clouds over parts of Andaman Sea.

An east-west trough runs along the southern peninsular latitude with an embedded cyclonic circulation over southeast Bay of Bengal in the lower levels.

Minimum temperatures are below normal by 3 to 6 degree Celsius over most parts of the country outside south peninsula and Rajasthan where they are above normal by 1 to 2 degree Celsius.

Northwesterly to northerly winds are prevailing over northwest, east and central India in lower levels. A western disturbance as a westerly trough is likely to affect western Himalayan region from Tuesday to Thursday.

Isolated rain or snow has been forecast over western Himalayan region from Tuesday onwards. Mainly dry weather over remaining parts of the country.

The Chennai Met Centre said, in its outlook valid until Wednesday, that isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep.

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