Share Market Highlights 18 January 2024: Sensex settles 300 pts lower, Nifty ends under 21,500; Pharma stocks gain, Consumer Durables drag

Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty fell for the third day running on Thursday, dragged by continuous selling in HDFC Bank and profit-taking in consumer durables and utility shares.

The rupee appreciated 2 paise to settle at 83.12 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday, tracking a weak American currency against major rivals overseas.

Inox Wind has appointed Akhil Jindal as its Group Chief Financial Officer. Akhil Jindal is an engineering graduate and an MBA from IIM Bangalore. He has over 30 years of experience in engineering, corporate finance, banking, strategy, mergers and acquisitions, and investor relations.

The BSE Sensex fell 313.90 pts or 0.44% to close at 71,186.86. The NSE Nifty slumped 109.70 pts or 0.51% to close at 21,462.25.

The shares were down by 0.07% to ₹985 on the BSE.

Top gainers among the Nifty pack at 3 pm were Sun Pharmaceuticals (2.84%), Cipla (2.21%), Tech Mahindra (2.10%), Tata Motors (1.71%), Axis Bank (1.47%). Top losers were LTIMindtree (-10.56%), HDFC Bank (-3.14%), NTPC (-3.15%), Titan (2.23%) and Asian Paints (-2.27%).

The bull run in the equity markets is expected to continue in 2024 as well. Emkay Global Financial Services anticipates the Nifty50 to end the year at 24,000 points, with an 11 per cent return and small and mid-caps to outperform.

In a presentation, the broker said that the key themes expected to play out in the current year are rate cuts, the budget, more reforms, and a probable revival in mass segment spending. It also expects earnings growth to continue in the mid-teens with improved returns on equity.

Sasken Technologies’ shares were up by 7.22% to ₹1516.75 on the BSE.

The company also raised ₹1,000 crore through its first QIP. Ramkrishna Forgings’ share price declined ₹16.10 or 2.11 per cent to ₹746.15 on NSE.

Indoco Remedies’ shares were down by 1% to ₹376.65 on the BSE.

The board of directors of Raminfo Limited, an e-governance and technology solutions company, has approved a proposal to raise ₹62 crore through a preferential issue.

The 29-year-old company said the proceeds would be used towards organisation development, leadership expansion, domestic and international expansion to diversify revenue composition.

NSE nifty was down by 0.61% or 131.95 points to 21,440 while the BSE Sensex was at 71,097.20 down by 0.56% or 410 points at 1.45 p

HDFC Asset Management Co. Ltd., investment manager to HDFC Mutual Fund, one of India’s leading mutual fund houses, has announced the launch of the HDFC NIFTY PSU Bank ETF. This ETF offers a simple way to gain exposure to the PSU Bank sector. The NFO will close on January 23.

Sunrise Efficient Marketing Limited introduced the “Save & Pay” scheme, offering the replacement of old, high-power-consuming electric motors with SynchroPlus energy-efficient motors. The shares were up by 1.85% to ₹110 on the BSE.

Ashok Leyland secured an order for 1,225 Viking buses from Karnataka State Transport Undertakings. Shares were up by 1.63% to ₹174.15 on the BSE.

Intellect Design Arena inaugurated an AI-led innovation center in GIFT City, Gujarat, focusing on advanced AI-led products powered by eMACH.ai. Shares up by 0.29% to ₹859.65 on the BSE.

India looks solid on most parameters – strong flows, earnings growth and macro-outlook - Strong domestic and FPI flows into Indian equities boosted domestic stocks in 2023. We see no reason for this to change. The macro environment seems favourable with inflation easing. For the US, BNPP Exane economists expect 6 rate cuts in 2024 and a soft landing. India’s inclusion in global bond indices may support bond yields. Based on state election results, we think market concerns about the upcoming elections have eased. Also, in terms of underlying fundamentals, India has seen double-digit earnings growth with minimal consensus downgrades in recent quarters.

· But all good things come at a price; valuations appear expensive - Valuations are now elevated across metrics. In particular, the expanded bond-earnings yield gap indicates muted returns from here as historically this has been a reliable leading indicator. The other concern is that the recovery has not been broad-based, with mass-consumption categories still under pressure. A renewed interest in China and an increase in LTCG tax on equities as the government looks to mobilise resources to drive mass consumption are also potential risks.

· We prefer private banks, IT services, telecoms; U/W on staples, automobiles and pharma - Our extensive valuation benchmarking exercise, spanning indices and sectors, indicates that our preferred ‘growth at a reasonable valuation’ opportunities are increasingly limited. We continue to prefer affluent consumption over mass. We prefer private banks, given their strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations. We expect IT services growth to recover and telcos to raise tariffs. We would avoid staples and pharma for growth challenges. We expect autos to consolidate after a strong 2023. We expect high single-digit returns from Nifty 50 in 2024 and prefer large caps.

· 2023 – Another strong year for India - India continued its stellar performance in CY23 as it emerged as one of the best performing markets, trailing only the US and Taiwan, led by factors such as: 1) solid domestic macro environment; 2) strong domestic flows; 3) resurgence of FII inflows post March 2023; 4) resilience in corporate earnings; and 5) easing inflation fears and expectations of global interest-rate cuts.

National Securities Depository (NSDL) has received accreditation to commence Legal Entity Identifier (LEI) related services from the Global Legal Entity Identifier Foundation (GLEIF) in December 2023. NSDL will start offering LEI service including new LEI registration, LEI renewal and LEI transfer to business entities from January 16, 2024.

The Legal Entity Identifier (LEI) code has been conceived of as a key measure to improve the data quality accuracy of financial data system for better risk management post the global financial crisis. The LEI is a 20-character, alpha-numeric code based on the ISO 17442 standard developed by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO). It connects key reference information that enables clear and unique identification of legal entities participating in financial transactions and contains information about an entity’s ownership structure.

The LEI is not only a regulatory requirement for the business entities engaged in various kind of financial transaction, but it also helps entities to Improves transparency and reduces risk in financial transaction, facilitates cross-border trade and builds trust with customers and partners.

Rahul Gossain has joined JSA as Chief Strategy & Brand Officer effective from 18 January 2024. With over two decades of experience, Rahul is renowned for his adept handling of international stakeholder engagement and strategic brand management. Rahul has expertise in professional services marketing across the legal, consulting and healthcare domains, has also worked extensively in corporate responsibility space. His leadership in initiating and nurturing strategic corporate transformations and innovation endeavours has earned both internal and external acclaim.

Before joining JSA, Rahul served as the Head of Marketing Communications & BD at Cyril Amarchand Mangaldas since August 2018. Prior to that, he played a key role in the branding, market development, communications and CSR functions at Shardul Amarchand Mangaldas, Max India Group, Essel Group, and leading communications agencies.

Airbus delivers on ‘Skill India’, forms JV with Air India to launch pilot training centre, partners with GMR to train maintenance crew.

ABB India ltd.’s ABB Robotics and Simpliforge Creations collaborated to advance 3D printing capabilities for India’s construction sector by using ABB robots and Simpliforge’s software to build South Asia’s robotic concrete 3D printer. Shares down by 0.90% to ₹4728.55 on the BSE.

Star Housing Finance Limited reported financial performance with a 97% year-on-year increase in Assets Under Management, 71% year-on-year growth in income, and a 41% year-on-year rise in Profit After Tax. shares up by 3.50% to ₹73.70 on the BSE.

Ajmera Realty & Infra India Limited and Keystone Realtors Limited (Rustomjee), is undertaking a joint venture ‘Ajmera Luxe Realty Private Limited’, a redevelopment project in Bandra West, Mumbai. With a 50% stake each, Ajmera and Rustomjee anticipate a Gross Development Value (GDV) of approximately ₹760 crore. The shares were up by 4.46% to ₹529 on the BSE.

Goodluck India Ltd, a specialised engineered steel products manufacturer catering to automobile, aerospace, oil & gas, T&D, defense, solar, and overall infrastructure spaces, on Wednesday, announced the successful closure of its Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) round.

The company’s Board approved the issue and allotment of 21,27,659 equity shares to Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) at an issue price of Rs. 940 per share at a premium of Rs 938 per share, aggregating to nearly Rs 200 crore. 

The company proposes to use the proceeds from the issue to fund its working capital requirements and for general corporate purposes. It plans to utilize Rs 150 crore of the net proceeds towards its further estimated working capital requirements.

Raminfo Limited received board approval for a preferential issuance of shares, aiming to raise up to ₹62 crore. Shares were up by 0.87% to ₹145.30 on the BSE.

NSE nifty was down by 0.3% or 60.45 points to 21,511.50 while the BSE Sensex was at 71,395.10 down by 0.16% or 94.08 points at 12.10 pm

Stocks hitting 52 week low at 12 pm on the NSE - Grasim industries Ltd (-10.32%), Digidrive distributors Ltd. (-4.99%), Flair Writing industries Ltd (-1.14%), Inox India Ltd (-1.04%) Muthoot Microfin Ltd. (-0.79%)

Stocks hitting 52 week high at 12 pm on the NSE - Oracle financial services software Ltd. (21.41%), Pakka Ltd. (13.75%), Sobha Ltd. (11.71%), Vertoz Advertising Ltd. (10%), Rane engine Valve Ltd. (10%)

A total of 3,787 stocks were actively traded at BSE. 1,641 advanced, while 1,988 declined and 158 stocks remained unchanged where 228 stocks hit a 52 week high and 18 stocks hit a 52 week low at 12 pm on Thursday

Top gainers on the NSE at 12 pm include- Tech Mahindra Ltd (2.80%), Axis Bank Ltd (2.16%), Sun Pharmaceutical Ltd (1.86%), Apollo hospitals enterprise Ltd (1.34%), State Bank of India (1.02%) 

Top losers include- Ltimindtree Ltd (-10.18%), NTPC Ltd. (-2.97%), Asian paints Ltd (-2.22%), HDFC Bank Ltd (-1.99%), Indusind bank Ltd (-1.88%

Satin Creditcare Network Limited achieved the Gold level in Client Protection Certification from global rating agency MicroFinanza. The certification evaluates aspects, including product design, transparency, fair treatment of clients, privacy, and governance. The shares were down by 1.47% to ₹265 on the BSE.

Puravankara Limited, launched Purva Soukhyam, a ‘wellness’ themed development project in Guduvanchery, Chennai. Shares were up by 3.71% to ₹230.50 on the BSE.

RACL Geartech Limited approved an investment of up to ₹140 Lakhs in the equity shares of Sunsure Solarpark Ten Private Limited for solar power captive consumption. The company aims to reduce power costs at its Gajraula (U.P) Plant by shifting to cost-effective and eco-friendly solar power. Shares down by0.38% to ₹1165.05 on the BSE.

Vikas Lifecare Limited acquired a 50% equity stake in Portfolio Managing Events LLC, Dubai, UAE (PME Entertainment) for ₹1 Billion. Shares were up by 3.03% to ₹6.81 on the BSE.

Equity benchmarks are extending their losses. While NSE Nifty declined 120.30 pts or 0.56 per cent to trade at 21,451.65, BSE Sensex was at 71,223.87, down by 276.89 pts or 0.39 per cent at 10:44 am.

Nifty Bank was at 45,933.35, down by 0.28 per cent; Nifty Metal at 7,596.80, down by 1.26 per cent; and Nifty Consumer Durables was at 31,895.95, down by 1.11 per cent.

Lead futures (January contract) on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), which has been charting a sideways trend for nearly a month, slipped below the support at ₹181 on Wednesday. This has opened the room for further downside in the coming sessions.

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd was named the top employer in Europe for the 12th consecutive year by the Top Employers Institute. TCS aims to upskill 20 million Information and Communications Technology (ICT) specialists in Europe by 2030. The shares were down by 0.11% to ₹3880 on the BSE.

Bank Nifty began today’s session significantly lower at 45,492.75 as against yesterday’s close of 46,064.45. It is currently hovering around 45,900, down 0.4 per cent.

Even as the index is trading lower compared to yesterday’s close, the advance/decline ratio stands at 8/4. Axis Bank, up 1.7 per cent, is the top gainer whereas HDFC Bank, down 2.2 per cent, is the top loser.

Nifty 50 opened today’s session considerably lower at 21,414.20 versus yesterday’s close of 21,571.95. The index is now trading around 21,430, down 0.7 per cent.

Substantiating the bearish bias, the advance/decline ratio of Nifty 50 stands at 14/36. In line with the benchmark indices, all mid- and small-cap indices are trading in the red so far today.

Withering the dual storm of restrictive monetary policy and inflation, US retail sales data climbed higher than expected and signalled strength in the economy. The pick-up (0.6% from 0.5% in Nov’23) was boosted by higher motor vehicle and online purchases. This reports further underscores the probability of rate cut with investors pricing in a 53.8% chance of cut in Mar’24 from 63.1% earlier. Hawkish commentary by ECB officials also lowered the expectations of easing of global rates. Soft economic data from China which pointed towards patchy recovery also weighed on investor sentiments. Separately, UK’s inflation came in higher than expected at 4% (3.9% in Nov’23) led by higher prices of alcohol and tobacco, which in turn has dented rate cut expectations from BoE.

Global indices ended lower as investors pared back on the rate cut expectations and monitored economic outlook for China. Better than expected retail sales print in US also eroded bets of rate cut in Mar’24. Led by subdued global cues, Sensex too dropped registering the sharpest fall in over 19-months with deep losses in banking and metal stocks. It is trading further lower today in line with other Asian stocks.

The price of gold has declined, driven by strength in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index. Increasing signs of strength in the US economy, represented by higher-than-expected retail sales growth, and signs of persistence in inflationary pressures, represented by higher-than-expected Consumer Prices Inflation in the United Kingdom, have dismissed the likelihood of early rate cuts, thus eroding the recent gains made in the yellow metal.

On the geopolitical front, a heightened sense of instability in the Red Sea region, marked by an escalation in attacks and counterattacks, has bolstered the demand for gold, contributing to the support of the yellow metal’s prices.

Today, the market will focus on upcoming statements from Federal Reserve members and closely monitor the weekly unemployment data from the US while keeping a watch on escalating geopolitical tensions.

Participation in gold has decreased recently, however, settling at an elevated level. This may lead to an extended rally in gold once participation expands further. We believe that gold will consolidate at its current prices. Nonetheless, it remains a favourable investment opportunity and should be accumulated during price corrections.

Currently, we are observing a rally up to Rs 63,500. On the downside, gold may experience a correction down to Rs 61,000 levels.

-- Chintan Mehta, CEO, Abans Holdings

Systematix Corporate Services Limited revealed that the Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) continued SEBI order to cancel the registration of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Systematix Commodities Services Private Limited. Shares up by 1.98% to ₹782 on the BSE

Aether Industries Ltd. collaborated with Novoloop, a plastic circular economy technology company to build a pilot plant in India, aimed to transform post-consumer plastic waste into high-quality monomers for producing materials like Lifecycled thermoplastic polyurethane. Shares down by 2.29% to ₹853.75 on the BSE.

Aarti Industries Limited secured a 4-year supply contract exceeding ₹6000 crore with a multinational conglomerate for a specialty chemical. Shares were up by 4.14% to ₹607 on the BSE.

Samvardhana Motherson International Limited’s subsidiary, Samvardhana Motherson Innovative Solutions Limited (SMISL), entered into definitive agreements with BIEL Crystal (Singapore) Private Limited. BIEL will invest in Motherson Electronic Components Private Limited (MECPL), a wholly-owned subsidiary of SMISL, and provide technical assistance. The investment grants BIEL the right to acquire up to 49% of MECPL’s share capital. Shares down by 2.50% to ₹105.30 on the BSE.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. entered into a definitive merger agreement with Taro Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. The cash acquisition is valued at USD 43 per share, totalling USD 347.73 million for 21.52% of Taro’s outstanding shares.

Stocks trade at ₹1297.45 down by 0.14% on the BSE.

The rupee slipped 1 paisa to 83.15 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday amid rising crude oil prices and withdrawal of foreign funds.

Despite a weak American currency against major overseas rivals, negative sentiment in domestic equity markets kept the Indian currency under pressure, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 83.16 and inched up to 83.15 against the greenback in morning deals and traded at a loss of 1 paisa over its previous close.

Paradeep Phosphates Ltd.’s shares were up by 1.12% to ₹76.70, the company reported resuming ammonia and urea plants production.

NSE nifty was down by 0.65% or 154.30 points to 21417.65, while the BSE Sensex was at 71,037.78 down by 0.63% or 462.45 points at 9.35 am

On Thursday, the Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, sustained downward pressure. In early trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex witnessed a decline of 395.05 points, trading at 71,105.70. Simultaneously, the NSE Nifty slipped by 123.35 points, reaching 21,448.60. Analysts anticipate the market to continue facing pressure, citing the ongoing underwhelming result season. 

Global stocks are mixed with Japan, Singapore, Korea, and Taiwan stocks, even as Australia, China, and Taiwan stocks are down.

According to analysts, the market may remain under pressure, and every rise will encounter selling pressure during the day.

Jaykrishna Gandhi, Head - Business Development, Institutional Equities, Emkay Global Financial Services on markets, said: “Last week Nifty had a runaway rally as we kick start earnings season with large cap IT names beating estimates on margins helped by cost optimisation. Management commentary around discretionary spending remained weak.

“This week markets took a turn today with the Nifty Bank index falling about 4 per cent as HDFC bank share price slipped 7 per cent on concerns around a slowdown in deposit growth. As talks around rate cuts continue and as banks struggle with balancing credit growth vs margins, we likely see a tactical rotation towards good quality NBFCs,” he added.

As the Street is baking in good earnings growth for most mid-cap names, incrementally, it will be driven by how close actual releases come vs expectations built.

Saurabh Jain- Equity Head, Research- Fundamentals, SMC Global Securities Ltd, said: Timing the market is challenging, but it may be prudent to gradually accumulate positions in a market downturn. “Although some stocks may experience short-term declines, if the fundamentals of a sector and specific stocks remain strong, it could be an opportunity to strengthen your portfolio. Investors should consider buying fundamentally robust stocks and sectors, focusing on the long-term perspective rather than short-term market fluctuations,” he added.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head-Equity Research at Kotak Securities, reports heavy selling in benchmark indices with Nifty closing down 454 points and Sensex down 1614 points. Despite an intraday recovery, continuous selling pressure led to negative reversals on daily charts and bearish formations on intraday charts, signaling ongoing weakness. Chouhan identifies crucial support at 21440/71100 and suggests potential entry points at 21400/21380 levels for intraday traders. If the market sustains above 21440, a double bottom formation may occur, with resistance at 21700 and 21800. The Bank Nifty’s medium trend has turned down, suggesting resistance at 46900, while supports are at 45400 and 45200. Chouhan recommends buying select stocks below 21500 levels with a medium-term view.

Top gainers on the NSE at 9.30 am include- Adani ports and special economic zone Ltd (1.42%), Tata motors Ltd (1.31%), Reliance industries Ltd (0.59%), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (0.33%), Axis Bank Ltd (1%). Top losers include - Ltimindtree Ltd (-10%), Power grid corporation of India Ltd (-4.12%), Asian paints Ltd. (-3.54%), HDFC Bank Ltd (-2.18%), SBI Life insurance company Ltd (-1.69%)

Zydus Lifesciences Ltd has received final approvals from the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) to manufacture and market Pimavanserin Capsules, 34 mg and Pimavanserin Tablets, 10 mg. 

The capsules will be manufactured at the group’s formulation manufacturing facility at Ahmedabad SEZ, India.

The stock inched up by 0.37 per cent on the NSE, traded at ₹712.35 as of 9:20 am.

The Indian equity market continues to outshine many global peers on the back of strong domestic inflows, encouraging economic data, strong corporate earnings growth and stable government policy. US rate cuts, weakening USD, falling oil and other commodity prices bode well for the Indian economy and earnings growth of domestic oriented corporates, though global growth slowdown may adversely impact the earnings of export-oriented corporates in the near-term. Premium valuation in the Mid and Small Cap segments of the market, any adverse union election results and rising geo-political issues are the key near-term risks to the Indian equity markets. Post the sharp runup in markets, we are cautious on the near-term return potential of the equity markets, while remaining optimistic for the medium- to long-term. Mid Caps and Small Caps in general have become more expensive after the recent runup. Many weak (low growth + low quality) Mid Caps and Small Caps are in bubble zone and caution is advised. Strong (high growth + high quality) Mid Caps and Small Caps may still present opportunity for long-term investors. On a relative top-down basis, we are finding better upside in Large Cap stocks versus Mid Cap and Small Cap stocks and see lesser earnings volatility for domestic consumption-oriented versus export-oriented sectors.

BULLION

“Gold and silver prices continued to decline following better-than-expected U.S. retail sales data and increased strength in the dollar index. December’s U.S. retail sales exhibited a growth of 0.6%, surpassing the anticipated 0.4%, while core retail sales also saw a 0.4% increase compared to the expected 0.2%. The positive U.S. data bolstered the dollar index, exerting downward pressure on gold and silver values. Additionally, disappointing Chinese economic data, with a GDP drop to 5.2% in the fourth quarter, further impacted precious metals. Despite this, the prices of precious metals found support due to weakness in global equity markets and the ongoing Red Sea crisis.Expectations suggest that gold and silver prices will remain volatile in today’s trading session. Gold is anticipated to find support at $2000-1988, with resistance at $2024-2038. Silver, on the other hand, is expected to have support at $22.42-22.25, while resistance is projected at $22.82-23.98. In terms of INR, gold is likely to find support at Rs61,250-61,080, with resistance at Rs 61,690, 61,840. Silver’s expected support in INR is Rs70,940-70,380, and resistance is at Rs71,950, 72,480.”

CRUDE OIL

“Crude oil exhibited significant volatility, rebounding from its lows following better-than-expected U.S. retail sales and core retail sales data. Also, tensions in the Middle East escalated after Iran fired a missile over Pakistan, contributing to the recovery in crude oil prices. OPEC’s optimistic global demand forecast for the next two years further bolstered prices at lower levels. Despite these factors, the strength of the dollar index and disappointing Chinese fourth-quarter GDP data imposed constraints on gains. Anticipating ongoing volatility, we expect crude oil prices to fluctuate in today’s session. The support levels are at $71.90–71.10, with resistance observed at $73.15-73.80. In INR, crude oil finds support at Rs 5,905-5,830 and faces resistance at Rs 6,070-6,150.”

USD - INR

“The USD-INR 29 January futures contract remained stable, holding above the 83.05 mark. The daily technical chart indicates the pair is trading above its moving average trend-line support at 83.05, with the RSI above 50 levels. Despite negative MACD divergence, the pair sustained above 83.05. Support lies at 82.92-82.80, while resistance is at 83.22-83.40. The pair, recovering from lows, encounters strong resistance at higher levels, projecting a trading range of 82.70-83.55 for the week.”

U.S. stocks finished lower on Wednesday as traders pulled back on their expectations for 2024 rate cuts following a strong December retail sales reading. US industrial production rose 0.1% in December, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday. The gain was above a 0.1% decline, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal. Sales at US retailers jumped 0.6% in December to cap off a fairly robust holiday shopping season and underscore the resilience of a still-growing U.S. economy. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.4% increase. The robust retail report bolsters the case for the Federal Reserve to wait a while before cutting interest rates given the strength of the economy. It also shows little threat for now of recession. The 10-year Treasury yield was last trading nearly 4 basis points higher at 4.102%, continuing its rise from Tuesday. CME FedWatch Tool showed, about 57% of Fed fund futures traders are expecting the first rate cut in March 2024, compared to 63.1% of traders on Wednesday.

World stocks and bonds took a hit on Wednesday as central banks pushed back against interest rate cut bets, while signs of a patchy economic recovery in China drove shares in the world’s second-biggest economy to their lowest in almost five years. The Indian government on Wednesday said it will sell a 3.5 percent stake in power producer NHPC at a floor price of Rs 66 a share, which will garner Rs 2,300 crore to the exchequer over Jan 18-19.

Foreign portfolio investors recorded their highest-ever single-day selloff on Wednesday, as they turned net sellers of Indian equities after two days. FPIs offloaded equities worth Rs 10,578.1 crore, according to provisional data from the National Stock Exchange. The previous highest-ever single-day selloff was Rs 9,691 crore, on Nov. 3, 2017.

Asian equities were mixed Thursday after US stocks and Treasuries fell as strong retail sales data cast fresh doubt on the prospect the Federal Reserve will cut rates in March. Nifty ended sharply lower on Jan 17, marking the biggest intraday fall since 13 June 2022, due to panic selling across the board led by Bank shares. At close, Nifty fell 2.09% or 460.4 points at 21571.9. Nifty fell on Jan 17 with a down gap, forming a bearish island reversal pattern. On a downward breach of 21449, Nifty could head towards 20977 over the next few days, while 21851 could act as a resistance. The broader market has not seen panic selling. Once we observe that happening the sentiments could deteriorate fast and down move could accelerate.

-- Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities. (January 18)

Vikas Jain, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities.

Focus today – ADR – HDFC Bank down 9%, ICICI Bank down 2%, Axis Bank down 4%, Dr Reddy down 2%, Tata Steel down 4%, Results - Indusind Bank, Polycab, Poonawala Fincorp, 360 One, Mastek. US December retail sales above expectation to 3-month high and UK UK December Inflation above expectation. US 10-Year bond surged by 4bps to nearly 2-month high at 4.10%. Brent Crude slipped 2% on hope of weak demand

Uncertainty about US Fed to cut interest rate after reported hotter than expected US retail sales data, nearly 2-month high US 10-Year bond yield, mixed bag of China economy data, spike in UK December Inflation, sharp decline in HDFC Bank ADR and FIIs over Rs10000cr net sellers yesterday may open domestic equity market on a weak note. US market declined up to 0.5% on speculation that the US Federal Reserve will be in no rush to cut interest rates as the economy shows signs of resilience after reported better than expected retail sales data US 10-Year bond Yield surged by 4bps to nearly 2-month high at 4.10% and US Vix (Volatility Index) surged by 7%. Gift Nifty declined by 174 or 0.8%. 

Yesterday, Nifty, Sensex and Bank Nifty witnessed the biggest single day drop by 2% since the last two years. Nifty close to 20-DMA level of 21572. Bank Nifty fell over 2000 points or 4% to close below 50-DMA level at 46064. India Vix climbed up by 11% after a long period. However, the positive factor is that the US market recovered nearly 1% from the intra-day low and Asian markets opened marginally positive.

Oil Price Update –.Brent Crude rebound from low as a report of fresh US strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen raised tensions in the Middle East.

Gold Price Update – Gold slipped 1% to $2008/ounce after a hotter-than-estimated US retail sales report reinforced views that bets on aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve are overdone.

NIFTY-50 OUTLOOK

NIFTY-50 witnessed a complete reversal from its inside range with sustained sell off to close near the low point of the month at 21,500 levels. 

On the higher side crossover of 21,800 will give a upward positive momentum while on the downside 21,250-21,400 will act as support.

RSI has trending below the average line and could weaken further with other key technical indicators from current levels.

Highest call OI is at 21,800 strike while on the downside the highest put OI has moved higher to 21,300 for the weekly expiry.

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK

BANK NIFTY broke on the downside from its resistance with sharp profit booking across the sector to close at 6 weeks low.

The 100 day average at 45,280 and gap levels will be the key supports from current levels while multiple resistances in range of 46,800-47,200 levels.

RSI has moved to the lower end of the range at 38 levels and oversold on daily and hourly charts.

Bank Nifty 47,000 CE has the highest OI while on the downside 46,000 for the put OI for the monthly expiry.

Issue Period:- 18- January-24 to 19- January-24

For Non- Retail ( QIB +HNI ) open & close date - 18-January -24 (Today) 

For Retail open & close date – 19 –January-24

Floor Price: INR “66”

Closing Price on date of announcement: Rs.73.06\u0009

Current Market Price: 73.06

Base Issue size: 25.11 Crs Shares – 2.50% of O/S Capital

Green Shoe Issue size: 10.05 Crs Shares – 1.00% of O/S Capital

Total Issue Size: 35.16 Crs equity shares (INR 2320 Cr) – 3.50% of O/s Capital

Non-Retail Portion (QIB + HNI) - 90% of Offer Size - Bidding on 18-January -24 (Today)

Total Issue Size: 31.64 Crs shares (INR 2088.36 Cr)

Retail Portion - 10% of Offer Size - Bidding on 19 January, 2024

Total Issue Size: 3.51 Crs equity shares (INR 232.04 Cr)

Note : Upto Rs 2 lacs bids are classified as Retail and above non retail ( QIB + HNI )

Avdhut Bagkar Technical and Derivatives Analyst, StoxBox.

US market fell overnight to extend losses from the previous session as strong December retail sales data along with an unexpected uptick in industrial production in the month added to anxiety about the outlook for interest rates. Asian market declined on Wednesday as investors reacted to mixed Chinese data and kept a wary eye on the latest developments in the Middle East. Market participants reined in expectations the global rate easing cycle may not come as early as some had initially thought. Indian market may open lower on Thursday, tracking weak cues from global markets on concerns that the Fed and ECB won’t lower rates as early as previously anticipated. In stock-specific news, Taiwan’s Foxconn Technology Group and India’s HCL Group will form a joint venture (JV) to set up a semiconductor outsourced assembly and testing (OSAT) unit, where Foxconn will hold 40% equity with an investment of $37.2 million, the companies individually confirmed.

The Gift Nifty is indicating a gap down opening of over 150 points, implying another weak opening. On Wednesday, the gap-down closing has led to a formation of “Island Reversal”, which suggests a negative reversal. The index now needs to illustrate robust reversal to negate this formation; else bears may gain control and the index may weaken. The breakdown could steer steep decline if the key support of 21500 is not defended. On the upside, the index has to resiliently close over 22000 mark to revitalize the upward sentiment.

Crude oil futures traded higher on Thursday morning as severe cold weather in the US impacted its oil production. Added to this, the latest monthly report of the OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) indicated a growth in global oil demand for the next two years. At 9.16 am on Thursday, March Brent oil futures were at $78.08, up by 0.26 per cent; and March crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $72.80, up by 0.44 per cent. January crude oil futures were trading at ₹6059 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) in the initial trading hour of Thursday morning against the previous close of ₹5972, up by 1.46 per cent; and February futures were trading at ₹6071 as against the previous close of ₹6005, up by 1.10 per cent.

Heavy selling was seen in benchmark indices, resulting in Nifty closing down by 454 points and Sensex down by 1614 points. Although all major sectoral indices traded in the red, Bank Nifty and Financial indices declined sharply, falling over 4 per cent. Technically, the market saw an intraday recovery after a gap-down opening, but it fell sharply again due to continuous selling pressure at higher levels. Negative reversals on daily charts and bearish formations on intraday charts indicate weak sentiment likely to continue.

In our view, the current market structure is weak but oversold. The crucial support level is at 21440/71100. If the markets are strong, they will not close below the same. On an intraday basis, they may fall to 21400/21380 levels, which could be an entry point for intraday traders with a stop loss at 21300 levels. If the market manages to sustain above 21440, it would be a double bottom formation, and it could bounce back sharply. On the higher side, 21700 and 21800 could pose major hurdles. The strategy should be to buy select stocks below 21500 levels with a medium-term view.

The Bank Nifty’s medium trend has turned down below the level of 46900, which could act as a major resistance for it. The supports are at 45400 and 45200 levels. Buying is advisable in select private and public banks with a short-term view between the same.

The Indian equity market continues to outshine many global peers on the back of strong domestic inflows, encouraging economic data, strong corporate earnings growth and stable government policy. US rate cuts, weakening USD, falling oil and other commodity prices bode well for the Indian economy and earnings growth of domestic oriented corporates, though global growth slowdown may adversely impact the earnings of export-oriented corporates in the near-term. Premium valuation in the Mid and Small Cap segments of the market, any adverse union election results and rising geo-political issues are the key near-term risks to the Indian equity markets. Post the sharp runup in markets, we are cautious on the near-term return potential of the equity markets, while remaining optimistic for the medium- to long-term. Mid Caps and Small Caps in general have become more expensive after the recent runup. Many weak (low growth + low quality) Mid Caps and Small Caps are in bubble zone and caution is advised. Strong (high growth + high quality) Mid Caps and Small Caps may still present opportunity for long-term investors. On a relative top-down basis, we are finding better upside in Large Cap stocks versus Mid Cap and Small Cap stocks and see lesser earnings volatility for domestic consumption-oriented versus export-oriented sectors.

RPSG Ventures on Wednesday said its board has approved the company’s plan to raise around ₹284 crore from promoter and promoter group companies by issuing around 35.75 lakh shares on a private placement basis.

Tata Steel Ltd (Transferee Company)

Symbol : TATASTEEL

Stock Price : 131.65 

Tinplate Company of India (Transferor Company)

Symbol : TINPLATE 

Stock Price : 432.40

Last date of trading of Tinplate Company : 18/01/2024 (Today)

Record date: 19/01/2024

Ratio : 33:10 (For every 10 shares held in Tinplate Comapny, 33 shares of Tata Steel will be given).

Price band revised from 20% to 10%: Dredging Corporation of India. 

Ex/record date buyback: Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals. 

Moved into short-term ASM framework: Dredging Corporation of India, Global Surfaces. 

Moved out of short-term ASM framework: Amines and Plasticizers, Sula Vineyards, Transindia Real Estate, Trident.

Tourism Finance Corp: Alpana Mundra sold 7.6 lakh shares (0.85%) at Rs 169.32 apiece and Vivek Mundra sold 9.3 lakh shares (1.03%) at Rs 172 apiece. 

Hi-Tech Pipes: Ajay Kumar and Sons sold 11.13 lakh shares (0.85%) and Parveen Bansal sold 9 lakh shares (0.68%) at Rs 140.09 apiece.

Jindal Saw: Cresta Fund sold 18 lakh shares (0.56%), while Nippon India Mutual Fund - Small Cap Fund bought 10 lakh shares (0.31%), BNP Paribas Arbitrage bought 3.99 lakh shares (0.12%), Societe Generale bought 1.99 lakh shares (0.06%) at Rs 519 apiece. 

Pricol: Minda Corp. sold 1.83 lakh shares (15.07%) for Rs 343.5 apiece. TNTBC as The Trustee of Nomura India Stock Mother Fund bought 30.97 lakh shares (2.54%), Fidelity Funds India Focus Fund bought 30.7 lakh shares (2.51%), Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance bought 30.3 lakh shares (2.48%), ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund bought 17.5 lakh shares (1.43%), Tata Mutual Fund bought 17.49 lakh shares (1.43%), Goldman Sachs India bought 14.9 lakh shares (1.22%), and among others at Rs 343.5 apiece. 

Medi Assist Healthcare: The public issue was subscribed 16.25 times on day 3. The bids were led by institutional investors (40.14 times), non-institutional investors (14.85 times), and retail investors (3.19 times). 

360 ONE WAM, Accelya Solutions India, Finolex Industries, Home First Finance, IndiaMART InterMESH, IndusInd Bank, Innova Captab, Jindal Stainless, Mastek, Metro Brands, Polycab India, Poonawalla Fincorp, Ramkrishna Forgings, Shoppers Stop, South Indian Bank, Supreme Petrochem, Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy, and Tata Communications.

NHPC: The government to sell up to 3.5% stake via offer for sale on Jan. 18 and 19. The floor

price of the offer for sale was set at Rs 66 per share, indicating a discount of 9.6% to the current market price.

Adani Enterprises: The company has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Maharashtra government to set up a 1-gigawatt hyperscale data centre at an investment of Rs

50,000 crore over the next 10 years.

Shriram Finance: The company raised $750 million through social bonds from international bond markets.

Nazara Tech: The company plans to raise up to Rs 250 crore via a preferential issue of shares at Rs 872.15 apiece. The company acquired a 10.77% stake in social influencer platform Kofluence Tech Pvt. for Rs 32.41 crore.

Indiabulls Housing Finance: The company approved raising up to Rs 5,000 crore via an equity

issue.

Natco Pharma: The company invested $2 million in the Delhi-based biotech startup Cellogen Therapeutics.

Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services: The company signed a contract worth Rs 200 crore with Torrent

Gas - for implementing close loop fleet program.

Sundaram Finance: The company has exposure to alternate investment funds of Rs 270.28 crore

as of Jan. 18.

RailTel Corp: The company received an order worth Rs 82.41 crore from South Central Railway in the Secunderabad Division.

Balaji Amines: The company received BIS certification for the product Morpholine from the Bureau of Indian Standards.

Intellect Design Arena: The company received approval to set up its branch office at GIFT City.

Manali Petrochemicals: The company has resumed operations at its Manali Plant.

OnMobile Technologies: The company has appointed Sreejith Chandrasekharan as Chief Technology Officer.

ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India: RS Rajagopal Sastry has resigned from the

Position of CFO

Avenue Supermarket: The company has opened two new stores in Tirupur (Tamil Nadu) and Sehore (Madhya Pradesh). The total number of stores as of today stands at 344.

Uniparts India: The company has been awarded an order of $1.2 million from Doosan Bobcat

Keystone Realtors: The company will acquire 50% of the Ajmera Realty unit, Ajmera Luxe Realty

for Rs 50,000.

● From Price Action Perspective:

Weaker set of quarterly numbers from HDFCBANK, in addition to sharp spike in Dollar Index, has led to selling pressure on Bank Nifty, which ended 4.3% negative for the day. Nifty outperformed by falling 2.09% as the IT sector supported the index to an extent. 

Extensive Delivery based selling pressure seen across HDFC Bank, ICICIBANK, Kotak Bank, Axisbank, and Federal Bank kept Banking Index under pressure throughout the day. 

● Decoding Asset Relationships:

The dollar index broke above its 13-day range, marking a potential change in sentiment in the currency basket as it approached 103.50 levels. US 10-year Bond yields too experienced uptick as it comfortably sustained above 4.05% in tandem with the dollar index.

Meanwhile, Brent Crude remains steady between $80-75 a barrel. 

● Quick Check on Global Markets:

Good Incoming Economic Data pertaining to an uptick in US Retail Sales did not impress the US Equity Markets as it pushes back the expectations of a near-term interest rate cut by the US Fed. 

The S&P 500 experienced price rejection near its life high zone closer to 4800. Overall, Momentum is bullish, but for fresh momentum to emerge, it is essential for the index to surpass this level of 4800. 

On the downside, the previous swing low of 4630-4665 zone could act as an important support.

● Key Nifty levels:

Going forward, since Nifty has slipped below its 20 Day EMA placed at 21580, from a short-term perspective, next support is likely to be seen at 21300-21350 level & resistance on the upside will be closer to 21620-21650. 

In case 21300 is breached, 

Index could slide towards 21160-21080 zone on the downside. 

Above 21650, the Index could resume its uptrend towards 21790-21850 zone. 

● OI data Interpretation:

The cummulative futures open interest for the index declined by 7% while the price fell 2%, indicating long unwinding of positions.

Nifty PCR_OI has cooled off to 0.55 levels and is approaching oversold zones. 

Put writing is seen in 21500 and 21400 strikes while 21600, as well as 21700 calls, have seen aggressive writing. 

Overall, the range for the coming few sessions could be 21300 on the downside & 21700 on the upside.

● Key Bank Nifty Levels:

Going forward, the 50-day EMA zone of

46400-46500 is likely to act as a resistance & and until this holds, the index can experience further selling pressure upto 45600-45700 zone.

In case 45600 breaks, Index can retest its next support placed at 45200-45150.

Above 46500, Bank Nifty could witness a short covering rally towards 47000-47200. 

Tracking the Open Interest Data,

On a cummulative basis, the futures OI surged by 28% while the price fell by 4.2%, indicating fresh short build up in the Banking Index.

Banknifty’s monthly series PCR is currently at 0.65. 

Significant Open Interest buildup is witnessed in 46200-46500 calls and 46200-46000 puts, implying a range of 45400 and 46400 for the coming few sessions. 

Next few sessions are going to be crucial for Bank Nifty as numbers of ICICIBANK and Kotak Bank are also scheduled to be released in the coming 3 days. 

● Sectors & stocks in Momentum:

The most influential stocks whose quarterly earnings are due today are Indusindbk, Polycab, and Tatacomm. 

Railway stocks such as Rites, RVNL, IRCON and IRFC experienced buying with heavy volumes. 

From the broader market, bullish setups were observed in HCLTECH, Hudco, IREDA, Minda Corp, BPCL, IOC, EMudhra, Hercules, KTKBank, LTTS, Mirza, Midhani and Speciality Restaurant.

● FII - DII data Synopsis:

In the Cash Segment, 

FIIs sold to the tune of 10,578.13 cr while DIIs bought to the tune of 4,006.44 cr

FIIs’ Long Short Ratio for Index Futures worsened to 54.19 as on a net basis, they sold 58945 index futures. 

On the stock futures front, FIIs have sold to the tune of 79504 contracts, while on the Options Front, FIIs sold 452583 call contracts and sold 417203 Put Option contracts. 

The above data buildup surely indicates the unwinding of long positions by FIIs in Index and Stock Futures.

Macquarie on Hero Motocorp: Upgrade to Buy on Company, raise target price at Rs 4882/sh 

Nomura on Tata Motors: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 953/sh 

CLSA on HAL: Maintain Outperform on Company, raise target price at Rs 3253/sh 

MS on Bajaj Finance: Maintain overweight on Company, target price at Rs 10000/sh 

Nomura on Apollo Hospitals: Maintain Buy on Company, raise target price at Rs 6724/sh 

CLSA on NCC: Maintain Buy on Company, raise target price at Rs 240/sh 

CLSA on Larsen: Maintain Buy on Company, raise target price at Rs 4260/sh 

CLSA on BHEL: Maintain Sell on Company, raise target price at Rs 135/sh 

HSBC on Asian Paints: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 4020/sh 

Goldman on Asian Paints: Maintain Neutral on Company, target price at Rs 3300/sh 

Jefferies on Asian Paints: Maintain Underperform on Company, target price at Rs 2500/sh 

MS on Asian Paints: Maintain Underweight on Company, target price at Rs 2600/sh 

MOSL on Asian Paints: Maintain Neutral on Company, target price at Rs 3340/sh 

Citi on ICICI Pru: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 670/sh 

Nomura on LTIM: Maintain Reduce on Company, target price at Rs 4600/sh 

Citi on LTIM: Maintain Sell on Company, target price at Rs 5300/sh 

HSBC on LTIM: Maintain Hold on Company, cut target price at Rs 5160/sh 

MS on IBullshousing: Maintain Underweight on Company, target price at Rs 132/sh 

Kotak on LTIM: Maintain Reduce on Company, cut target price at Rs 5500/sh 

CLSA on LTIM: Downgrade to Sell on Company, cut target price at Rs 4800/sh 

Incred on LTIM: Downgrade to Reduce on Company, target price at Rs 5857/sh 

Domestic markets will remain under pressure on Thursday as well. Analysts expect the market to remain under pressure with the result season underwhelming.

Gift Nifty at 21,393 indicates a gap down opening of over 700 points as Nifty futures February futures ruling at 22,175 and against January futures value of 21,589.55. Global stocks are mixed with Japan, Singapore, Korea, and Taiwan stocks, even as Australia, China, and Taiwan stocks are down.

India’s sugar production this season, which started on October 1, 2023, was 14.87 million tonnes (mt) until January 15. This is seven per cent lower, according to co-operative sector sugar mills body. Since the sugar recovery rate is at par with last year, the actual sugar output will depend on how much sugarcane crop comes to the mills for crushing.

Gold tops investment choices for women in Chennai. Nearly 33 per cent of urban women in Chennai invest in gold, surpassing the national average of 16 per cent. Over 90 per cent of women in Coimbatore lean towards investments in fixed deposits and savings accounts, says DBS Bank India and CRISIL Survey.

Federal Bank reported healthy credit growth of 18/3 per cent y-o-y/q-o-q. Its higher-yielding portfolio contributes about 24.6 per cent of the total portfolio vs 21.4 per cent y-o-y.

Cost of deposits inched up 17 bps q-o-q, while yields improved 2 bps during the quarter. NIMs contracted 3 bps q-o-q. Non-interest income grew 62/18 per cent y-o-y/q-o-q aided by a one-time gain from a stake sale in FedFina (about ₹80-90 crore). The C-I Ratio improved to 51.9 per cent from 52.5 per cent sequentially. PPOP grew 13/9 per cent y-o-y/q-o-q.

SBC Exports Ltd

Bonus issue 1:2

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 36.91

Ex Bonus 19 January 2024 (Tomorrow)

Last date Trade for Before Bonus Today

Ex-Dividend 19 January 2024 (Tomorrow)

Last date for Cum-Dividend Today

HCL Technologies Ltd.

Dividend Per Share Rs.12

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 1576.05

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.

Special Dividend Per Share Rs. 18

Dividend Per Share Rs.9

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 3884.15

Downgrade Bajaj Auto & Eicher Motors to Sell from U-P 

Believe stocks (ex Hero) are overvalued following recent rally 

Turn cautious as valuations are pricing in double-digit volume growth over next few years, which think is unlikely 

Bajaj Auto - Downgrade to SELL, TP Rs 6315 (13% downside potential) 

Cut FY24/25CL vol assumptions by 4.7%/6.3% 

Eicher Motors - Downgrade to SELL, TP cut to Rs 3716 from Rs 4129 

Expect new competitors (Harley/Triumph) to gain market share 

Hero Motocorp - O-P, TP Raised to Rs 4964 from Rs 4127 

Increase vol est. in premium motorcycle & electric scooter segments 

TVS Motors - Sell, TP Rs 1438 (30% downside potential) 

Decrease FY24/25CL volume est by 2.0/4.1%

Business Updates Reflect Further LDR Expansion & LCR Contraction 

Incremental Levers Point To Further NIM Downside 

Lower FY25/26 NIM Ests For Kotak Bk. HDFC, Axis, Federal & ICICI 

Prefer Prvt Bks, Followed By NBFCs Over PSU Bks 

Downgrade SBI To Sell, TP cut to Rs 600 From Rs 700 

Downgrade Federal To Neutral, TP Cut To Rs 135 From Rs 170 

Upgrade M&M Fin To Buy, TP Cut To Rs 310 

Upgrade Chola Invst To Buy, TP Raised To Rs 1510 From Rs 1200

Believe industry is in middle of a multiyear demand upcycle 

Although capacity addition remains strong, utilization levels are expected to remain high 

This consequently should drive margin expansion over next couple of yrs , & hence further re-rating 

Upgrade Ambuja to OW, TP raised to Rs 600 from Rs 390 

Upgrade ACC to EW, TP raised to Rs 2400 from Rs 1650 

Ultratrech – OW, TP Raised to Rs 12000 from Rs 9300 

Dalmia– OW, TP Raised to Rs 2750 

Grasim– OW, TP Raised to Rs 2430 

Shree Cement – EW, TP Raised to Rs 28500

SELL, TP Rs6800 

High share in consumer finance; mounting competition underappreciated 

Consensus is overestimating ROA profile of Bajaj Finance 

Yield to be under pressure in urban consumer financing (37% of standalone AUM; 45% interest earned & over 60% of core fee income in FY23) 

High mkt share in consumer finance – 50% 

Bajaj’s high-yield consumer segment AUM to grow 4-6% below consensus in FY23-26E 

1/3rd of fee, forming 28% of PBT in FY23; could be under pressured by competition 

We est 21% CAGR in EPS over FY23-26E vs 28% in FY20-24E 

FY25/FY26E is 9%/15% lower than consensus 

JFS’s expansion could put pressure on consumer loans in medium term 

Quality of customer base is peaking; cross-selling is key to incremental growth

• ABFRL

• ASHOKLEY

• BANDHANBNK 

• CHAMBAL

• DELTACORP

• HINDCOPPER 

• IEX

• METROPOLIS

• NALCO

• POLYCAB

• PVRINOX

• SAIL

• ZEEL

HDFC BANK ADR Closing price = 55.94

ADR ratio : HDFC Bank has a ratio of 1 ADR = 3 Ordinary Shares.

USD INR = 83.20

ADR PREMIUM average for 2023 = 10%

Therefore INR price = (55.94*83.20) /( 3*1.10) = 1410

Yesterday INR closing price = 1538

Therefore expect a 7% to 8% fall in today’s session

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.intelegain.rb

Angel One: Dinesh Thakkar, CMD

In A Phase Of Acquiring New Customers At A Much Higher Rate: Angel One

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bB0y86yYT7g

Capacite Infra: Subir Malhotra, ED&CFO

Capacite Infra: Margin, Revenue Guidance & More | Subir Malhotra

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9f2SZoed5Y

MAP MY INDIA: Rohan Verma, CEO

MapmyIndia Q3 In-Line With Estimates

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8T3mCh3f37A

ICICIGI: Gopal Balachandran, CFO

Will Look For Profitable Growth In Motor Segment: Gopal Balachandran Of ICICI Lombard

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DLNueYOtd8

ICICIGI: Gopal Balachandran, CFO

ICICI Lombard Q3 Results; PAT Misses Estimates

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_r7xx1RrlJU

L and T Technolog: Amit Chadha, CEO

L&T Tech: Key Tailwinds For Net Profit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EynYiOg0h0

Minda Inds: Nirmal Minda, Chairman & MD

We Should Reach About 25-30% Of EVs In The 4-Wheeler Segment Soon: Uno Minda

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pFMbwWihJM

Capri Global: Rajesh Sharma, MD

Capri Global: Board Meet On Jan 27; Roadmap For Growth | Outlook On AUMs | Rajesh Sharma

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCUHstkaZPU

NELCO: PJ Nath, MD

Nelco Q3FY24 Earnings Fineprint; Solid Double Digit Topline Growth In Q3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywpeKEP9x3g

Axis Bank: Amitabh Chaudhry, CEO

Credit growth has to come down, RBI wants market to temper expectations’, says Amitabh Chaudhry of AxisBank on #RBI’s measures on unsecured loans.

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1746906252851150927?s=20

Events today…

https://www.researchbytes.com/Default.aspx?cc=event

Results today…

https://www.researchbytes.com/Default.aspx?cc=result

Replays available at www.researchbytes.com

Turnover: (NSE + BSE) (In Cr)

Cash Volume: 132045.29 + 8514.57 Total: 140559.86

F&O Volume: 588623.52 + 281942.6 Total: 870566.12

Provisional Cash Rs. In Crs.

FII/FPI: NET SELL: -10578.13 

(17,317.91 – 27,896.04) 

DII: NET BUY: +4006.44 

(15,188.62 - 11,182.18)

Asian Paints Ltd. | CMP Rs. 3250 | M Cap Rs. 311734 Cr | 52 W H/L 3568/2686

(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)

Result is above expectations

Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 9103.1 Cr (7.4% QoQ, 5.4% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 9386.6 Cr, QoQ Rs. 8478.6 Cr, YoY Rs. 8636.7 Cr

EBIDTA came at Rs. 2056.1 Cr (19.8% QoQ, 27.6% YoY) vs expectation of Rs. 1975.4 Cr, QoQ Rs. 1716.2 Cr, YoY Rs. 1611.4 Cr

EBITDA Margin came at 22.6% vs expectation of 21%, QoQ 20.2%, YoY 18.7%

Adj. PAT came at Rs. 1447.7 Cr vs expectation of Rs. 1356.2 Cr, QoQ Rs. 1205.4 Cr, YoY Rs. 1072.7 Cr

Quarter EPS is Rs. 15.1

Stock is trading at P/E of 58.1x FY24E EPS

MS

UW, TP Rs 4600 

Q3 a miss vs. MSe, but management commentary constructive on demand 

Believe STK would need material acceleration in growth in F25, absent which it could underperform. 

Reported revenue growth of 0.9% qoq in constant currency terms (vs. 2.1% est.) 

CITI

Sell, TP Rs 4065 

Soft rev growth at 0.9% in cc(Citi: 2% in cc) 

EBIT margins slightly better 

Forward looking indicators – 

a) FY24 overall cc rev guidance maintained at 17.5% to 18.5% 

b) headcount declined 2.4% qoq 

Nomura

Reduce, TP cut to Rs 3880 

3Q misses both at rev & margin levels 

4Q ask rate a steep one; for achieving FY24E revenue growth guidance of 17.5-18.5% 

Stock is currently trading at 38x FY25F & 33x FY26F EPS

CLSA

Buy, TP Rs 2025 

Mixed qtr 

NIM stable, but deposit traction & branch opening weak 

Loan growth & asset quality good; 1-off credit costs 

Cut est. 3%-5% on a/c of lower deposit & loan growth 

2 key things to monitor- ability to raise deposits & NIM trajectory 

MS

OW, TP Rs 2110 

F3Q24 PAT of Rs164bn grew by 2% QoQ, beating MSe by 4%, owing to lower taxes 

NII up 4% QoQ, in-line 

Margins stable QoQ as expected 

Core PPoP up 3% QoQ (in-line) 

Credit costs higher largely owing to 1-time contingency provisions 

Bernstein

O-P, TP Rs 2200 

1st YoY EPS decline in a decade, sums up a disappointing qtr 

Reported very Qtr— NIMs flat QoQ, borrowings grew faster than deposits & bank had to once again use lower tax expense route to maintain its 2% RoA 

HSBC

Buy, TP cut to Rs 1950 

Moderate NIM expansion est. to c15bp over FY2024-26e (c30bp earlier); few NIM levers remain 

With a NIM recovery being potentially back-ended, HDFCB’s near-term earnings est. 

Cut EPS by 0.8/7.8/5.8% for FY24/25/26e 

Jefferies

Buy, TP Rs 2000 

Core PBT at Rs207bn, up 4% QoQ, in line 

But net profit at Rs164bn ahead with lower tax rate & higher treasury 

Key miss was in QoQ flat NIMs even as impact of ICRR & surplus liquidity receded

HEG has a significant exposure to US steel mills, as 25-30 per cent of its topline comes from the same. Now US steel mills are witnessing a very strong order book, with their total new orders standing at ₹ 1,479 crore, which, for context purpose, is even higher than the peak level of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (₹1,460.5 crore).

HEG will set up a 20,000-tonne graphite anode manufacturing capacity, which is likely to be operational by FY26. Power remains the key input cost for manufacturing graphite anode, as it accounts for 50-60 per cent of the cost. Moreover, the PLI from the Centre for battery storage mandates battery manufacturers to do 60 per cent of their value addition in India. With global players wanting to de-risk the supply chain away from China, it also presents an export opportunity for HEG.

Here are the intraday supports and resistances for widely traded stocks such as Reliance Industries, ITC, ONGC, Infosys, HDFC Bank, TCS, and SBI

Truist Financial Corporation (Pre market) (Sector- Financial)

Fastenal Company (Pre market) (Sector- Capital Goods)

M&T Bank Corporation (Pre market) (Sector- Financial)

Northern Trust Corporation (Pre market) (Sector- Financial)

KeyCorp (Pre market) (Sector- Financial)

PPG Industries, Inc. (Post market) (Sector- Chemical)

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (Post market) (Sector- Logistics)

19.00 U.S. Unemployment Claims (Expected: 206K versus Previous: 202K)

19.00 U.S. Building Permits (Expected: 1.47M versus Previous: 1.47M)

20.45 EURO ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Current: 0.1% 

Expected: -0.1% 

Previous: 0.2% 

(Data seen marginally higher than estimates)

Asian stocks started Thursday on a subdued note following declines in US stocks and Treasuries. The drop was triggered by robust retail sales data, raising doubts about the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing rate cuts in March.

The Japanese Nikkei 225 rose by 0.30%, or 105.77 points, reaching 35,583.52, while the broader Topix increased by 0.22%, or 5.58 points, reaching 2,501.96. South Korea’s Kospi saw a gain of 0.43%, or 11.27 points, reaching 2,447.17, whereas Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 experienced a decline of 0.55%, or 40.40 points, trading at 7,352.70.

India’s Nifty 50 exhibits a marginal decline of 0.05%, reflecting an 11-point drop to 21,438.50 as of 6:51 a.m. According to Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities, on Wednesday, Sensex and Nifty, on Wednesday experienced a significant downturn, with the Nifty closing 454 points lower and the Sensex down by 1,614 points. Despite an intraday recovery, persistent selling pressure led to a sharp correction. Technical indicators suggest a weak market sentiment, but potential for a pullback rally if Nifty surpasses the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average). Traders should closely monitor the key level at 21650/71850, below which the bearish sentiment may persist, targeting 21,465-21,400/71,200-71,000. Conversely, a bounce-back is possible above the 20-day SMA, reaching 21,725-21,750/72,000-72,100.

Rupak De of LKP Securities notes a significant Bank Nifty decline, led by HDFCBANK sell-off on Wednesday. The index fell below the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement level, signalling potential weakness. Immediate support at 45,900-45,930, and resistance at 46,350. Further correction possible if support is breached.

Overnight, the S&P 500 declined 0.56% to end at 4,739.21 points. The Nasdaq fell 0.59% to 14,855.62 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.25% to 37,266.67 points.

Wall Street stocks finished lower on Wednesday after upbeat December U.S. retail sales data eroded expectations the Federal Reserve will kick off its rate-cut campaign as early as March. 

The benchmark S&P 500 fell to its lowest in over a week.

Amazon, Nvidia and Alphabet dipped between 0.5% and 1% and weighed on the S&P 500 as the 10-year Treasury yield rose to over 4.1%, its highest this year.

Tesla dropped 2% after the electric-vehicle maker slashed prices of its Model Y cars in Germany a week after reducing prices for some China models.

The interest rate-sensitive S&P 500 real estate sector index tumbled 1.9%.

Data showed discounts from retailers and increased motor-vehicle purchases supported a higher-than-expected rise in U.S. retail sales, keeping the economy on a solid footing in 2024.

That reinforced the view that the Fed may not cut rates as quickly as previously expected this year.

Traders’ expectations of a 25-basis-point Fed rate in March dipped to 55%, from around 60% before the data was released.

U.S. stocks in recent weeks have relinquished some gains from a strong final two months of 2023.

“People’s positions are moderating from ‘all positive’ to ‘there’s still a lot of uncertainty out there,’” said Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments in Atlanta.

He cited Fed officials who have recently downplayed expectations of a quick start to rate cuts, and mixed economic data.

The CBOE Market Volatility Index, a market fear gauge, rose to an over two-month high of 15.40 points during the day.

The S&P 500 remains down about 1% from its record high close in January 2022.

U.S. economic activity was little changed from December through early January, while firms reported pricing pressures were mixed and nearly all cited signs of a cooling labor market, the Fed said in its “Beige Book” report on Wednesday.

Morgan Stanley fell 1.8% after analysts cut their ratings and price targets in the wake of the bank’s fourth-quarter earnings. Bank of America and Citigroup each lost about 1%.

The S&P 500 declined 0.56% to end at 4,739.21 points. The Nasdaq fell 0.59% to 14,855.62 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.25% to 37,266.67 points.

The small-cap Russell 2000 index dropped 0.7% and closed at its lowest in over a month.

Charles Schwab dropped 1.3% after its fourth-quarter profit fell 47%.

Spirit Airlines tumbled 22%, down sharply for a second day after a U.S. judge on Tuesday blocked JetBlue from acquiring the carrier.

Ford Motor declined 1.7% after UBS downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “buy.”

Boeing gained 1.3% after the Federal Aviation Administration said inspections of an initial group of 737 MAX 9 airplanes had been completed.

Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones within the S&P 500 by a 4.0-to-one ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 24 new highs and five new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 47 new highs and 219 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was relatively light, with 11.8 billion shares traded, compared to an average of 11.9 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions. - Reuters