The Hindu Business Line : Secure that button and fast!

There are as yet no signs of General Pervez Musharraf preparing to return to civilian rule. Actually, there is considerable confusion about the future scenario. The spokespersons of the junta are speaking differently from different corners of the mouth. On the one side, the Attorney General, Mr Malik Abdul Qayyum, is asseverating that elections will be held in January 2008 as per schedule and the Central and State assemblies dissolved by November 15 when their term expires , but on the other, the Prime Minister, Mr Shaukat Aziz, has ruled out any election for at least a year.

There has been no clear-cut statement from the General himself. It is evident, though, that he is determined to go the whole hog enforcing a virtual Martial Law. If there was still any lingering doubt after the dismissal of Supreme Court Justices who stood up to him and mass arrests of critics and opponents, it should have been dispelled by the horrifying visuals on the TV screens showing protesting lawyers being dragged, pulled and shoved into prison vans by roughnecks in security forces.

What explains the General hurtling so far down the road towards a no-holds-barred, all-stops-pulled, neck-or-nothing bid to crush all resistance? He must have counted heavily on the Western powers, especially the US, the biggest benefactor, being so fixated on the war on terrorism and the supposedly indispensable role of Pakistan as to overlook whatever authoritarian excesses he commits to remain in power. He must have reasoned to himself that they will make some disapproving noises but will eventually rationalise themselves into adopting a supine posture.

It is not that when they made him the kingpin in their anti-terror strategy, he was a pristine pure democrat. They knew fully well that he had come to power through a military coup and still went to great lengths to pamper him and build him up. The US alone, with its age-old love for military dictators, poured $11 billion in the form of grants and aid, in addition to untold military hardware, in the six years since 9/11. All this, when it was plain as noonday sun that the General was running with the hare and hunting with the hound!

The wishy-washy comments of the US President, Mr George Bush, prove that General Musharraf has done his sums right. Having expressed some tepid hope for the restoration of democracy as quickly as possible, Mr Bush hastened to give a pat to the General for being “a strong fighter against extremists and radicals... After all they tried to kill him three or four times.”

So, there is no need for General Musharraf to lose his sleep fearing any retaliation from those quarters. The most formidable threat he faces is from within. Already wild rumours are sweeping the country. There is talk of his military cohorts being at loggerheads with him and various terrorist groups gearing themselves to strike. The air is thick with the omens of rebellion.

Gravest danger

With the prospect of widespread disorder and the consequent disruption or subversion of command and control mechanisms, if any part of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal of anywhere between 50 and 100 nuclear warheads were to fall into jehadi hands, it will spell the gravest danger imaginable.

“Idiot children are playing with matchsticks!”, exclaimed Winston Churchill, alarmed at the atomic weapons programme of advanced nations soon after the Second World War. In Pakistan, they are playing with matches with abandon and that too near a powder keg.

Therefore, the UN Security Council must give the topmost priority to making sure that the nuclear button in Pakistan is kept out of the reach of fanatical outfits. The matter brooks no delay.

B. S. RAGHAVAN