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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Aug 29 The rain deficit has narrowed down once again to one per cent on Wednesday (Aug 24) as a ‘turnaround’ spell persisted in the south while flooding rains in the east, dubbed the worst in decades, ranted and raved through another day.

The number of Met subdivisions recording excess or normal rainfall has improved to 32, with only the rest four in deficit. These were Marathawada (43 per cent); Kerala (31); Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura (30); and North Interior Karnataka (25).

Those landing just within the threshold ‘normal’ range (20 per cent or below) are Vidarbha (19); madhya Maharashtra and west Madhya Pradesh (17 each); and Saurashtra and Kutch (16 each). The ongoing wet weather is expected to help improve the situation somewhat over the next week.

This is based on forecasts by various models that project a scenario where the rains track north-northeast over central and the northeast peninsula. Coastal Karnataka, north interior Karnataka, parts of madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada, and Vidarbha and Telangana are likely to benefit.

The Global Forecast System (GFS) of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction too sees such a scenario playing out, with Kerala providing the fountainhead for fresh rain activity over the next three days. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has more or less endorsed this forecast.

The monsoon trough continued to run close to the foothills of the Himalayas. This will cause the heavy rain belt to confine itself to within the flood-ravaged east India for another three to four days.

A strong system (‘low’) developing in the Bay of Bengal alone can persuade the marauding trough to swing back and find a firm anchor in the sea. While doing so, the associated rain belt would also be forced to take leave.

But such a possibility seems remote, although the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts fancies the chance of a cyclonic whirl spinning up along the north Bay of Bengal around September 4. This is something that bears watching, according to meteorologists.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during the next two days. The rains may weaken in intensity later, according to this forecast.

But, according to the GFS, the rains would only have made a strategic retreat to migrate to West Bengal, Jharkhand and east Orissa, according to its outlook until September 8. The upper air whirl forecast to pop up over the adjoining Bay might only help catalyse the event.

In the South, the cyclonic circulation over north Tamil Nadu and adjoining south interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema persisted on Friday. Under its influence, fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls is likely over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, coastal and south interior Karnataka during the next three days. The west coast would also start getting the rains in due course.

Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Tamil Nadu, coastal Karnataka and Kerala.

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