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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Dec. 28 Minimum temperatures are below normal by 2-4 deg Celsius over parts of central India, east India and Gujarat due to prevailing cold northerly to northwesterly winds driven in by a resolute seasonal anti-cyclone.

Most parts of the country would go without rain as the year turns over, but the US Navy Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre continued to see a hesitant surge in warm and moist easterlies over the Bay of Bengal early in January, 2009.

A large convective belt looking west from southeast Bay and heading south-southwest but curling to east and further into northeast in a loop is shown to materialise over the next two days.

The northeasterly (even north-to-south) flows from the anti-cyclone and heading into the peninsula would keep the easterlies at bay initially, but are likely to give in during the dawn of the New Year.

One trigger for the surge could be cyclogenesis (cyclone development) indicated around The Philippines. The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services has put this region under watch for disturbed weather early in the New Year.

The ensuing convective belt is then depicted to head towards Sri Lanka, and from here, it could enter peninsular India across southeast coastal Tamil Nadu. Early forecasts by the US-based Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies too is in agreement with this outlook, timed for the week starting January 5, 2009.

This week may concurrently witness the entry of a western disturbance with an embedded trough, which could result in rain or thundershowers over the plains of the northwest India, spreading progressively into parts of east Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and Jharkhand.

Fog enveloped large tracts of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal and Gujarat during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning. Mainly dry weather is seen over Jammu and Kashmir during the next 24 hours and isolated rain or snow thereafter.

Rain or thundershowers have been forecast also for isolated places in sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya as moisture transported in by westerlies dipping into the Bay of Bengal sparks convection. Rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Nicobar Islands and at isolated places over Andaman Islands and coastal Tamil Nadu from stray moisture kicking in from a trough of low pressure over the southeast Bay.

Meanwhile, dry weather prevailed over Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Karnataka, said an update from the Regional Met Centre, Chennai.

Minimum temperatures were markedly below normal at one or two places over north interior Karnataka; appreciably below normal at one or two places over rest of north interior Karnataka, Telangana, south interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu; below normal at one or two places over the rest of north interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu.

Belgaum Airport recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 9 degree Celsius in the plains of the region. Forecast for the next two days said mainly dry weather will prevail over Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.

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