|
|
Home Page
-
Climate & Weather
Agri-Biz & Commodities
-
Climate & Weather
Web Extras
-
Outlook
North-East monsoon not before Oct 27
Vinson Kurian
Thiruvananthapuram, Oct. 21
More international model projections available on Wednesday favoured the possibility of onset of the north-east monsoon not earlier than October 27 over peninsular India.
The five-day forecast by the Global Forecasting System (GFS) model of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction ending Saturday said that the flows would be directed mostly towards the central equatorial Indian Ocean until then.
Clouds build-up
But satellite pictures available on Wednesday showed the build-up of clouds west of Indonesia and further westward, even spilling into adjoining Bay of Bengal. The cloud band had extended into southwest Arabian Sea as well.
In another significant development, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on Wednesday said that raging typhoon, Lupit, may re-curve north of the Philippines and head north-northeast.
Forecasts available until Tuesday had depicted it as heading westward into South China Sea and aiming for a landfall over Vietnam-South China region. But this is being ruled out as per the latest ECMWF update.
The westerly flows are now seen wrapping up the typhoon system and hurl it along a track that predecessor Typhoon Melor was forced into causing it ultimately to hit Japan. But Lupit may give the southern Japanese coast a miss and dig into the open Pacific waters instead.
The changing of Lupit's track, which is the predominant weather system over the entire east and far-east, may well be causing some of the cloud massed up along the equator to move north and northeast into the Bay of Bengal.
But the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and the Naval Research Laboratory at Monterey still saw Lupit tracking west across the Philippine archipelago into South China Sea.
Like the ECMWF, the London-based Tropical Storm Risk Group too saw Lupit re-curve, but only momentarily so. It will get back to its westerly track sooner than later, the storm forecaster said.
WIND FORECASTS
GFS wind forecasts for October 25 to 29 said that the winds would start blowing increasingly into peninsular India and the Arabian Sea and possibly precipitate the onset of northeast monsoon anytime after.
The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services had said that a lingering dry phase of the periodical Madden-Julian Oscillation wave had denied any quarter for north-easterlies to establish themselves.
NCEP predictions continued to suggest the possibility of peninsular India being brought under a broad wet after October 27 presumably with the anticipated onset of northeast monsoon.
On Wednesday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) chipped in with its own extended outlook until Monday next (October 26) that ruled out any significant weather activity, except isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Mainly dry weather will prevail over most parts of the rest of the country.
Maximum temperatures are above normal by 2 to 5 deg Celsius over most of peninsular India and by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over central and east India. They are near normal over the rest parts of the country.
The IMD expected no significant change in maximum temperatures during the next two to three days.
MERCURY LEVEL
Minimum temperatures are below normal by 3 to 4 deg Celsius over parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains, Gujarat and adjoining west Madhya Pradesh and the northern states.
They are below normal by 1 to 3 deg Celsius over the remaining parts of the country except west coast and extreme south peninsular India. No significant change in minimum temperature is likely during next two to three days.
The Chennai Met Centre said in its update that the remnant south-west monsoon has withdrawn from parts of Telangana and parts of north interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning.
Isolated rainfall occurred over Kerala during this period.
Forecast for the next two days said that isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over south Tamil Nadu, south Kerala and southern parts of Lakshadweep.
More Stories on :
Climate & Weather |
Climate & Weather |
Outlook
Article
E-Mail
::
Comment
::
Syndication
::
Printer Friendly Page
|
|
