The Hindu Business Line : Cold spell may drive wheat yield to record

State-wise scenario
Punjab tops the chart with a yield of over 4.184 tonnes followed by Haryana at 3.844 tonnes.
The yield in other States such as Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan averages around 2.7 tonnes.

M.R. Subramani

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Chennai, March 4 A record productivity in wheat is likely this year, thanks to a favourable cold spell in the growing areas during January-February.

“Productivity could be the highest-ever this year due to a favourable cold weather in almost all growing areas. Therefore, we expect no less than the 75 million tonnes (mt) production,” said Dr B. Mishra, Project Director, Directorate of Wheat Research in Karnal, Haryana. “We had unusually cooler temperature this year even in areas such as Madhya Pradesh,” he said.

Initially, the Centre had pegged this year’s production at 75 mt, but subsequently, it was pruned to 74.85 mt against last year’s 75.85 mt.

Wheat productivity last year was pegged at 2.619 tonnes a hectare, up marginally from 2006. Wheat productivity has been hovering around 2.6 tonnes during the last few years with Punjab topping the chart with a yield of over 4.184 tonnes followed by Haryana at 3.844 tonnes. The yield in other States such as Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan averages around 2.7 tonnes. The highest yield recorded so far in the country is 2.778 tonnes during 1999-2000, when production was a record 76.37 mt.

Acreage comes down

Hopes of higher productivity are likely to make up for the fall in the coverage of wheat. This year, the acreage under has declined to 277.31 lakh hectares (lh) from 282.14 lh last year as some farmers shifted to other crops, while late harvest of sugarcane in Uttar Pradesh had also an effect.

“Our scientists have visited various wheat-growing areas and have come back to say the crop looks wonderful,” Dr Mishra said.

Though there were reports of attack of aphid on wheat crop in Punjab, Dr Mishra and Mr Vinod Kapoor, former Chairman of the Wheat Products Promotion Society, it would affect only a small portion of the crop in that State.

“It is a very minor problem and is not threatening,” Dr Mishra said.

Mr Kapoor said there were no issues of either weather or pest attack on wheat crop, which looked good. “The weather has been fairly good for the crop,” he said, adding that there should be no problem in production touching the estimates made by the Centre.

Harvesting on

On the other hand, arrival of wheat has begun in Gujarat, which is usually the first State where the crop arrives. “The crop has started arriving in Saurashtra and it looks good with grains looking fuller. Prolonged winter has helped and the crop has begun ripening,” said trade sources from Ahmedabad.

“Harvesting has been going on since the last 15 days but the crop from Veraval region has a higher moisture of 16 per cent,” they said. Usually, wheat’s moisture should be below 13 per cent. “The crop from the Saurashtra region is coming with moisture of 13-14 per cent,” they said, adding that daily arrival at the Rajkot market was nearly a tonne.

Wheat production in Gujarat could be 25 per cent higher this year from last year’s 30 lakh tonnes (lt). Gujarat’s wheat production has been a revelation, rising from 8.5 lt in 2002-03 to over 30 lt now. Area under the crop in the western State has also increased to over 10 lakh hectares this year, up nearly 16 per cent over last year.

Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are the States which have reported a fall in wheat coverage.

Madhya Pradesh, where wheat crop was initially feared to be affected, could also witness a better production. “The cold spell has really helped and we expect a good crop,” said a farmer of Malwa region near Indore.

Stock situation good

With buffer stocks of nearly 51 mt and a projected production of 75 mt, this year’s wheat stocks situation is seen as ample and one that can meet demand.

Meanwhile, wheat prices have tended to drop a bit from the over Rs 1,150 a quintal witnessed last week. On Tuesday, wheat dara was quoted in New Delhi at Rs 1,135.

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